Navigating Market Shifts: Key Insights from the Third Quarter

Looking Ahead: Growth, Perspective, and Staying the Course

As we turn the corner into the fourth quarter, our team at Copper Beech is energized by both the momentum in the markets and the growth happening right here at home.

This fall, we’re excited to share a few updates: we’ll be moving into a larger office—still in the same building—to give our growing team and client community more room to collaborate and connect. We’ve also launched a new website, designed to better reflect who we are and how we serve you. And on a personal note, I’ll be running my first half marathon this season—a challenge that, much like investing, requires planning, discipline, and pacing yourself for the long run.

Key Takeaways from the Third Quarter

Each quarter brings fresh lessons. As interest rate expectations shift, global headlines evolve, and policy decisions unfold, we’re reminded how important it is to stay flexible and grounded in long-term goals. Those who maintain diversified portfolios and a clear plan tend to navigate uncertainty most successfully.

Market Performance and Broader Momentum

The U.S. stock market demonstrated resilience through Q3, buoyed by the strength of the technology sector and the continued resilience of the American consumer. The “Magnificent 7” tech giants now account for roughly 35% of the S&P 500’s market value, helping drive strong returns.

Encouragingly, market gains have started to broaden beyond big tech. Small and mid-cap stocks showed renewed life for the first time in months—a healthy sign of expanding market participation.

As of late September, analysts project 7.9% year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500, a modest improvement from earlier in the year. For the quarter, the S&P 500 gained 7.79%, the Nasdaq 100 rose 8.82%, and the Dow Jones added 5.22%.

The Consumer Keeps the Economy Moving

The American consumer continues to be the backbone of economic growth. The Atlanta Fed projects Q3 GDP growth at 3.9%, reflecting robust spending and steady income gains. Business investment also picked up—particularly in capital goods and manufacturing—supported by strong demand and a narrower trade deficit.

That said, we’re seeing growing disparities between income groups. Higher-income households are driving much of the discretionary spending, while others are feeling the pinch of inflation and higher borrowing costs. Credit card delinquencies are rising modestly, and savings rates have dipped to 4.6%, suggesting that consumers are drawing from reserves but not yet overextended.

Housing and Policy Crosscurrents

The housing market continues to face headwinds. High prices and elevated mortgage rates have cooled new construction and sidelined many buyers. Builders remain cautious, and affordability remains a key constraint—even as the Fed’s September rate cut offered some relief.

Meanwhile, global trade and policy uncertainty continue to shape business strategy. Many companies are reshoring or regionalizing supply chains, balancing opportunity with risk in a shifting geopolitical environment.

The Federal Reserve’s September rate cut, which brought the benchmark rate down to 4.25%, was described as a “risk management” move—aimed at supporting growth without reigniting inflation. With inflation still hovering near 3%, the Fed faces a careful balancing act heading into year-end.

Staying Focused on What Matters

Despite pockets of weakness—in housing, trade, and valuations—the broader picture remains one of economic resilience. The pace of innovation, particularly in AI and automation, continues to reshape industries and drive productivity. Yet, these concentrated gains also underscore why diversification and discipline are more important than ever.

As we enter the final quarter of the year, we encourage you to stay focused on your goals, revisit your portfolio’s positioning, and ensure your plan still aligns with your priorities and stage of life.

Looking Forward

At Copper Beech, we’re excited about the growth ahead—both for our clients and our firm. Whether it’s a larger office, a new website, or personal milestones like a first half marathon, each represents a commitment to progress, consistency, and long-term perspective.

As always, if you’d like to review your portfolio, discuss your financial plan, or simply check in before year-end, our team is here to help.

Here’s to a strong finish to 2025 and a thoughtful start to what’s next.